What Cross-State Backtest Does
The Cross-State Backtest is the most powerful historical research tool for Pick 3 and Pick 4 players in this app. You choose a combination, choose a time window, click Run, and within seconds you see a ranked table showing how that exact combination performed — in terms of both straight and box hits — across every US state that runs that game. The best-performing state is automatically surfaced at the top so the most actionable finding is immediately visible.
This tool is designed for players who have a specific combination in mind and want to know: "Has this combo shown any kind of historical pattern somewhere?" and "If I'm going to play this combo, which state gives it the best track record?"
Entering Your Combo
Use the digit pad on the page (or type directly into the digit fields) to enter your combination. For Pick 3, enter three digits. For Pick 4, enter four digits. Digits can repeat (e.g., 7-7-3 is a valid Pick 3 combo). After entering your combo, you can also adjust the game type selector if you want to switch between Pick 3 and Pick 4 without re-entering digits.
Choosing a Time Window
The time window controls how far back into history the backtest looks:
- 30 days: Only the most recent month. Very small sample — hit counts will mostly be 0 or 1. Use this to check recency only.
- 90 days: Last quarter. Still small but useful for spotting recent momentum.
- 180 days: Six months. A reasonable balance of recency and sample size for most analysis.
- 365 days: One full year. Shows the full seasonal cycle and provides robust sample sizes for states with daily draws.
- All-Time: The entire database history for each state. The most complete picture, though earlier data may reflect different draw equipment or rules.
For most research purposes, the 180-day or 365-day windows provide the best balance of statistical reliability and relevance to current patterns.
Straight vs Box Results
Just like in the National Combo Search, results are split into straight hits (exact order match) and box hits (any-order match). For a combo like 1-2-3 with three unique digits, there are 6 possible box arrangements (1-2-3, 1-3-2, 2-1-3, 2-3-1, 3-1-2, 3-2-1). The backtest counts all 6 as box hits. For a combo like 5-5-8 with a repeated digit, there are only 3 box arrangements, so box hit rates are lower. The page shows both counts clearly for each state.
The Best State Callout
At the top of the results section, a highlighted card names the best-performing state for your combo over the selected time window. "Best performing" is defined by hit rate (hits ÷ total draws), not raw hit count, to fairly compare states with very different draw volumes. A state with 2 straight hits in 200 draws (1.0% hit rate) ranks above a state with 3 straight hits in 1,000 draws (0.3% hit rate). The callout makes this finding immediately actionable if you are deciding where to play.
Interpreting Hit Rates
For Pick 3, the expected straight hit rate is 0.1% (one hit per 1,000 draws on average). A state showing 0.3–0.5% over 180 days is performing 3–5× above expected for that combo — a pattern worth noting. Hit rates above 1.0% in a large sample are statistically quite significant. Always check the Total Draws column to make sure the denominator is large enough for the rate to be meaningful. A "100% hit rate" from 1 hit in 1 draw is meaningless noise.
Important Caveat
Historical hit rates do not predict future draws. Each lottery draw is a statistically independent event. A combination that hit frequently in Ohio over the last year is not more likely to hit in Ohio next week because of that history. The backtest is a research and discovery tool — it shows you what has happened, not what will happen. Use it to make informed, data-grounded choices rather than relying on superstition, and always play within your budget.
Disclaimer: This tool is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Lottery draws are random events and past results do not predict future outcomes. Play responsibly.
DrawAnalytics is an informational service. We do not sell predictions or guarantee outcomes. Lottery drawings are random — past results do not predict future drawings. Play responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.